Trinta e sete anos depois, a luta dos movimentos contra as heranças da escravidão continua.
No dia 7 de julho, de 1978, nas escadarias do Teatro Municipal de São Paulo uma concentração organizada pelo Movimento Negro Unificado (MNU) marcou a luta contra o racismo no Brasil. O movimento nasceu quando representantes de várias entidades se reuniram em resposta à discriminação racial.
Depois dessa contribuição do MNU pela igualdade de oportunidades entre negros e negras, o sete de julho celebra-se o dia Nacional de Combate ao Racismo. Trinta e sete anos depois, a luta dos movimentos contra as heranças da escravidão continua.
Para secretária nacional de Combate ao racismo da CUT, Maria Julia, o país ainda continua com uma dívida histórica com o povo negro. “Os negros continuam sendo escravizado pela violência, pela falta de oportunidades, pela diferença salarial, pelo extermínio de sua juventude. Nós da CUT reafirmamos a necessidade da luta para não permitir retrocessos, para que tenhamos cada vez mais conquistas contra a desigualdade persistente em nosso país”, afirma a dirigente.
Após o ato no Teatro Municipal, o MNU lutou para fazer a população negra sair das salas de debates e das atividades lúdicas e esportivas, para ações de confronto aos atos de racismo e discriminação racial, elaborando panfletos e jornais, realizando atos públicos e criando núcleos organizados em associações recreativas, de moradores, categorias de trabalhadores, nas universidades públicas e privadas.
A luta do MNU foi aos poucos ganhando força e se refletiu na atitude do Estado em relação aos debates sobre a discriminação racial, culminando com a criação, em 1984, do primeiro órgão público voltado para o apoio dos movimentos sociais afro-brasileiros: o Conselho de Participação e Desenvolvimento da Comunidade Negra no governo Franco Montoro, então governador de São Paulo.
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Para se avaliar o impacto econômico das inundações no Rio Grande do Sul, é preciso olhar para o exterior para se achar algo semelhante — como no caso da destruição provocada pelo furacão Katrina nos Estados Unidos em 2005.
No Brasil, nunca houve tanto estrago econômico provocado por um evento climático. A avaliação é do economista Sergio Vale, da MB Associados, consultoria que está monitorando os impactos das enchentes de maio na economia.
Nos Estados Unidos, o Katrina fez o Estado da Louisiana contrair 1,5% — em um ano em que se esperava que crescesse 4%. No caso do Rio Grande do Sul, a MB Associados prevê que a economia vai se contrair 2% — em vez do crescimento de 3,5% que vinha registrando nos últimos 12 meses até abril.
E no caso brasileiro, o impacto em âmbito nacional será muito maior do que aconteceu no efeito do Katrina nos Estados Unidos — já que a economia gaúcha corresponde a 6,5% do PIB brasileiro (a Louisiana representa 1% da economia americana).
Por conta da tragédia, a MB Associados não pretende revisar o crescimento brasileiro. A consultoria acreditava que o crescimento brasileiro projetado para este ano podia ser de 2,5% — mas após a tragédia no Rio Grande do Sul ela manteve a projeção de crescimento em 2%.
O Brasil já enfrentou outras grandes crises que afetaram o crescimento da economia nacional. Em 2001, por exemplo, uma seca contribuiu para uma crise de racionamento de energia e apagões. A economia nacional, que havia crescido 4,4% no ano anterior, desacelerou para 1,4%. Mas apesar da contribuição da seca, o cerne da crise de 2001 não foi o clima, mas sim gargalos nas linhas de transmissão — que impediam o Brasil de distribuir energia pelo país.
A tragédia no Rio Grande do Sul deste ano — que já provocou pelo menos 151 mortes — terá impacto em pelo menos três frentes da economia brasileira: no crescimento do PIB deste ano, no setor agrícola e na questão fiscal brasileira.
Enchentes no Rio Grande do Sul
-2%deve ser o crescimento do Rio Grande do Sul, segundo estimativas
3,5%era quanto a economia gaúcha vinha crescendo antes das inundações
Fonte: MB Associados
Economistas e estudos consultados para esta reportagem lembram que a dimensão exata do impacto econômico ainda não pode ser quantificada com precisão, porque as chuvas ainda estão em andamento e sequer foi feito um levantamento preciso do estrago ainda.
Essa indefinição também tem implicações políticas. Autoridades têm falado em diferentes medidas e valores para destinar ao Rio Grande do Sul — mas essa ajuda ainda está sendo discutida e os números estão em aberto.
Confira abaixo como as inundações devem afetar a economia brasileira em 2024.
Impacto no crescimento e na indústria
As enchentes afetaram 94,3% de toda atividade econômica do Rio Grande do Sul, segundo um levantamento divulgado na segunda-feira (14/5) pela Federação das Indústrias do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (Fiergs).
“Os locais mais atingidos incluem os principais polos industriais do Rio Grande do Sul, impactando segmentos significativos para a economia do Estado”, disse o presidente em exercício da Fiergs, Arildo Bennech Oliveira.
Três das maiores regiões afetadas (Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre, Vale dos Sinos e Serra) contribuem com R$ 220 bilhões para a atividade econômica brasileira.
Essas três regiões concentram 23,7 mil indústrias que empregam 433 mil pessoas.
A Região da Serra (de cidades como Caxias do Sul, Bento Gonçalves, Farroupilha) é famosa pela produção nos segmentos metalmecânico (veículos, máquinas, produtos de metal) e móveis. A Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre também produz metalmecânicos (veículos, autopeças, máquinas), além de derivados de petróleo e alimentos. A Região do Vale dos Sinos é famosa pela produção de calçados.
Mas diversos outros setores da economia também foram afetados, como tabaco e químicos.
Um estudo feito pelo Bradesco prevê que o impacto da crise no Rio Grande do Sul pode reduzir o crescimento do PIB nacional em 0,2 a 0,3 ponto percentual.
“A título de comparação, quando o Estado foi atingido pelo ciclone de 2008, o crescimento do PIB estadual daquele ano foi de 2,9%, ante crescimento do Brasil como um todo de 5,1%.”
Um outro levantamento — da Confederação Nacional dos Municípios — calcula em mais de R$ 8,9 bilhões os prejuízos financeiros das enchentes. Segundo a CMN, R$ 2,4 bilhões desse prejuízo são no setor público, R$ 1,9 bilhão no setor produtivo privado e R$ 4,6 bilhões especificamente nas habitações destruídas.
Impacto agrícola
O Rio Grande do Sul é uma das potências do agro brasileiro — o Estado representa 12,6% do PIB da agricultura nacional.
Como um todo, a agropecuária brasileira será um dos setores da economia mais afetados pelas enchentes, segundo o Bradesco.
“Considerando tais impactos, o PIB agropecuário no Brasil pode recuar 3,5% (nossa estimativa anterior era de queda de 3,0%). As perdas no agronegócio podem ser ampliadas pela logística, que afeta tanto o escoamento da safra bem como impede a chegada de insumos. Esse parece ser um problema importante para os setores de laticínios e carnes”, afirma um relatório do banco.
O Rio Grande do Sul responde por 70% da produção do arroz do Brasil, 15% de carnes (12% da produção de frangos e 17% da produção de súinos) 15% da soja, 4% de milho.
As enchentes provocaram choques em alguns preços internacionais — a cotação mundial da soja na bolsa de Chicago chegou a subir 2% na semana passada. No Brasil, o preço do arroz já subiu e o governo anunciou a importação do produto para evitar um choque ainda maior. Há temores de que os preços de carne de frango e suína também possam subir em breve.
Por sorte, 70% da safra de soja e 80% da safra do arroz já haviam sido colhidos. Sobram duas dúvidas agora: quanto do restante da safra foi afetado pelas enchentes e se a quantidade já colhida e armazenada nos silos foi comprometida ou não. O Bradesco avalia que 7,5% da produção de arroz e 2,2% da produção de soja do Brasil podem estar comprometidos, caso se confirmem os piores cenários.
Vale, da MB Associados, lembra que o agro gaúcho já vinha sofrendo muito nos últimos três anos com os extremos climáticos.
“No Rio Grande do Sul, a questão agrícola nos últimos anos tem colocado o Estado no grau de muita insegurança. Foram três anos seguidos de La Niña, com secas muito profundas, e quebras de safra muito fortes. No ano passado, o Estado estava até comemorando a chegada do El Niño, que traria chuvas. Mas quando se pensou que teríamos um ano normal, de repente acontece isso”, diz o economista.
Ainda existe a possibilidade de um novo fenômeno La Niña este ano, com potencial para provocar novas secas no Rio Grande do Sul.
Impacto fiscal
Outro impacto importante da calamidade do Rio Grande do Sul na economia nacional é na questão fiscal brasileira.
Há anos o Brasil vem tentando equilibrar sua situação fiscal — ou seja — o governo faz um esforço para conseguir arrecadar mais dinheiro do que gasta, produzindo o que se chama de superávit fiscal.
Esse superávit fiscal é usado para reduzir o endividamento público do governo, que é um elemento fundamental da economia de qualquer país. Alto endividamento tem potencial para produzir inflação alta, baixo crescimento econômico e desemprego.
No ano passado, o governo Lula lançou o que chamou de “arcabouço fiscal” — o conjunto de regras para gastar os recursos públicos e fazer investimentos. Esse arcabouço foi fundamental para acalmar os mercados e sinalizar que o Brasil não gastaria dinheiro desenfreadamente.
Mas no mês passado, diante de problemas no orçamento, o governo desistiu de atingir superávits em 2025.
Economistas apontam que o Brasil já vivia um momento fiscal delicado antes das enchentes no Rio Grande do Sul.
No entanto, o quadro se agrava bastante agora que o governo federal terá que fornecer uma grande ajuda financeira ao Estado.
Todos defendem uma ajuda financeira grande ao Rio Grande do Sul, mas analisam que haverá um grande impacto nas contas nacionais.
Já foi anunciado, por exemplo, um plano a ser enviado ao Congresso para suspender a cobrança da dívida do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul com a União por três anos.
A regra permitiria a criação de um fundo “contábil” de R$ 11 bilhões por ano para ajudar na reconstrução da infraestrutura do Estado que foi devastada pelas enchentes, segundo o ministro da Fazenda, Fernando Haddad. A medida também inclui o perdão da cobrança de juros sobre a dívida — com impacto de R$ 12 bilhões.
O governo federal já havia anunciado na semana passada um pacote de medidas que pode chegar a R$ 51 bilhões, que incluía pagamentos antecipados de benefícios como Bolsa Família, auxílio-gás, BPC, abono salarial e restituição do Imposto de Renda, além de algumas renúncias fiscais.
Na quarta-feira, o governo federal anunciou um auxílio-reconstrução no valor de R$ 5 mil por família cadastrada, que custará R$ 1,2 bilhão aos cofres.
Alguns dos gastos públicos ficarão de fora das regras fiscais do governo, por conta de o Rio Grande do Sul estar em estado de calamidade.
Todas essas medidas são fundamentais para reerguer o Rio Grande do Sul — mas elas têm potencial para agravar a situação fiscal brasileira que já vinha sofrendo antes da crise provocada pelo evento climático.
Sergio Vale, da MB Associados, alerta que ao longo do ano é possível que mais dinheiro seja encaminhado ao Rio Grande do Sul através de créditos extraordinários aprovados pelo Congresso — e que isso deve piorar o equilíbrio fiscal brasileiro.
Ele diz que é difícil quantificar exatamente qual será o tamanho do problema fiscal brasileiro, porque ainda não se sabe quanto dinheiro será necessário para reconstrução do Rio Grande do Sul.
“Não está muito claro exatamente o que o governo vai disponibilizar. O cenário fiscal [do Brasil] já está muito distorcido. Então qualquer coisa que acontece piora ainda mais”, diz Vale.
Para Caio Megale, economista-chefe da XP, parte da ajuda estará fora do arcabouço fiscal do governo — mas mesmo que seja necessário incluir essas despesas no orçamento, seria possível acomodar os gastos.
“Ninguém sabe direito qual que vai ser o tamanho total do apoio. A gente ouve falar em R$ 70 bi, R$ 80 bi, R$ 90 bi ou R$ 100 bi. Não dá para saber ainda, é preciso esperar as águas baixarem. Mas o arcabouço fiscal tem espaço para que essas medidas sejam tomadas”, disse Megale em um morning call (serviço diário de corretoras para seus clientes) desta semana.
Nesta quinta-feira (16/5), o presidente do Sindicomerciários Viamão, Paulo Ferreira, e representantes de outros Sindicatos, Federações e Centrais Sindicais de trabalhadores irão participar de uma reunião com o Ministro do Trabalho, Luiz Marinho, e sua equipe técnica. O objetivo da reunião, que se dará de forma online, será para tratar das medidas que serão adotadas pelo Governo Federal em relação aos trabalhadores atingidos pelas recentes enchentes. Na ocasião, as entidades sindicais também apresentarão suas demandas.
A Fecosul, que representa os trabalhadores e e Fecomércio, que representa os empresários, firmaram um protocolo de intenções para orientar seus sindicatos filiados sobre as medidas a serem tomadas por conta do estado de calamidade no Rio Grande do Sul, decorrente das enchentes de maio de 2024.
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